Investor's Guide: In Historic Times | - Ted's columns via RSS feed
| Keep A Diary | 
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July 8, 2008 - Several years from now, maybe even ten or more, one of your children is going to ask, "Mom and Dad, we're studying the market meltdown of 2008 in school. Why didn't you buy stocks then? We could all be rich now."
In order to avoid a stammering, defensive answer, you might want to keep a diary, one that records your feelings as well as the reality of what we're going through. Because you won't remember the details, you'll only remember the overall fear that reigned over the market, a diary will give you specific examples of why you didn't buy stocks. Here are some possible entries: July 7: enjoyed the long weekend...market was closed on Friday...it couldn't go down that day...filled the SUV with gas ($120) bought groceries (bread was almost $5 a loaf)....had a barbecue with the neighbors in the back yard....3 out of 10 of them were out of work....today Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lost 20% of their value before rallying back a little....will they go out of business?...who will make mortgages if they do...not the banks, they're keeping credit tight....tried to keep my stress level down by sitting in the hot tub longer than I should have....feel extremely tired.... July 2: Bobby needs new braces....I see GM is trading below $10 a share....what a bargain, I think...of course, they look like they're going out of business....making cars and trucks and SUV's that are stacking up on lots....don't know why they're so slow in getting out energy efficient cars or electric ones....maybe I should buy a 100 shares but that would be $1000 and if I get laid off, I'll need that money to pay the mortgage....or fill the SUV 8 times...better keep liquid for now....at least I didn't buy Ford at $8 like that big tycoon....it's trading around $4.50 now.....feel very tired... June 20: Carol just got accepted to Brown....congratulations, I think...is that still the most expensive school in the country?.....oil keeps going up, near $145 a barrel...can it get to $200 a barrel?.....why not $300?...maybe I can bike to work but after 10 miles I get pretty smelly.....hope I have more energy tomorrow.... June 15: got our monthly mortgage notice.....payments are going up again....can I refinance now?....last time I talked to the banker, she said they weren't making loans that were more than 60% of value of the home.....we don't qualify for that....and the bank stopped making home equity loans so we can't get one of those.....but I got a nice pen....we'd sell the house but the proceeds won't cover the loan...if we can even get a bid....won't look at the stocks tomorrow May 24: our portfolio is getting hit hard.....I thought the banks would be a safe place to invest plus they mostly had good dividends....but I guess the mortgage problems are a lot deeper than anyone guesses, even the so-called experts....ha!..a lot they know....even my favorite columnist, The Online Investor, thought banks were a buy a few months ago....he got that totally wrong....what should I do now?....it's too late to sell them, take too many losses....I don't have any money to buy anything else....I'll just sit and wait this one out, hope everything's OK......can they really go lower? May 3: Can't find any good news anywhere: war in Iraq goes on without end, oil is above $130 a barrel, mortgage market is in total disarray, stocks are down every day, the Fed says it may raise interest rates to fight possible inflation when the whole economy feels like its in a recession, houses aren't selling (neighbor Bill has his on the market, for almost a year now, dropped the price 3 times and still hasn't sold), homebuilders laid off most of their workers, auto sales are down, especially trucks and SUV's (duh), seems like every aspect of the economy except for energy and exporters (the weak dollar is helping somebody) is doing poorly....will it ever end?.... You get the idea. Make it personal. Make it real. Make it about now. Then when your kids or even your spouse question your investing intellect, you'll have some ammunition to draw on, to show them how it really was and why you decided that food and getting to your job were more important than a 100 shares of anything. - Ted Allrich |